You Decide

The draw for post positions for the 144th Kentucky Derby was completed yesterday morning. Interestingly, and for a change, the horses I think with the best opportunity to win were largely unscathed by the posts they received; actually, most contenders drew very well.

So here it is:

1. Firenze Fire

2. Free Drop Billy

3. Promises Fulfilled

4. Flameaway

5. Audible

6. Good Magic

7. Justify

8. Lone Sailor

9. Hofburg

10. My Boy Jack

11. Bolt d’Oro

12. Enticed

13. Bravazo

14. Mendelssohn

15. Instilled Regard

16. Magnum Moon

17.Solomini

18. Vino Rosso

19. Noble Indy

20. Combatant

Also Eligible–Blended Citizen

You might note Quip and Gronkowski are not part of the field.  Both were withdrawn early last week.  Quip was pulled because his connections felt that the Derby was going to be asking too much of him following his efforts in the prep races to qualify.  He is being pointed to the Preakness.  Gronkowski became ill and wouldn’t recover soon enough to not only ship to the U.S., but prepare to race.  Thus, Instilled Regard and Combatant drew in; I don’t like either’s chances.  If a horse scratches prior to Friday morning, Blended Citizen will draw into Gate 20.

The horses in this field I believe with the best chance to wear the roses are Audible, Good Magic, Justify, Hofburg, My Boy Jack (who I really see as more of a place or show horse), Bolt d’Oro (who I personally don’t care for, but has some talent), Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon, and Vino Rosso (although I think he’s the good horse most compromised by his far outside draw…).

Justify has been installed as the 3-1 morning line favorite.  As I’ve stated before, I think Justify is the most physically gifted horse in the field, but to win the Derby Saturday in his fourth lifetime race is a GIGANTIC ASK.  So we’re either going to see a grand horse stretched too far too soon or perhaps a superstar in the making.  I can’t give a rousing endorsement to ANY of these horses, including those I’ve singled out as the best in the field because I can make as many, if not more, significant arguments as to why they can’t or won’t win.  So, sorry, but you are TRULY on your own this year picking the winner.

I am anxious to see how this race will play out.  In the ridiculous 20-horse field, my main hope and concern is that first and foremost all horses and riders have a safe trip.

There is a chance of rain in Louisville early Saturday, following what’s forecasted to be a pretty wet day Friday. Still, I’m expecting a dry, although possibly not fast track at race time. Coverage of Derby Day begins at 2:30 on NBC, post time for the Derby is 6:45 p.m.

ENJOY!

 

 

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